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Written by SOT.COM.AL 2 Shkurt 2023
The high level of prices is expected to stabilize at the end of this year.. After a difficult year where inflation reached record levels, the Ministry of Finance predicts that inflation will gradually return to its target of 3% at the end of 2023.
In the recently published macroeconomic framework for the year 2024-2026, it is estimated that inflation in the country will continue to stay around this level in the coming years. The highest level of inflation was recorded in October last year with 8.3 percent and then started a downward trend reaching 7.4% in December.
Based on the decrease in the level of inflation, the economic performance in the country is expected to be positive. A slowdown is predicted only for this year, where the level of economic growth is expected to be 2.6%, while starting from next year, the level of economic growth in the country is predicted to be higher returning to the level of 4%.
During the medium-term period, growth is expected to be generated mainly by domestic demand, both consumption and investment. Private consumption is expected to be the main driver of GDP growth again, stimulated mainly by the improvement in consumer confidence, as well as by the improvement in the stock market. work. The latter are expected to be transmitted to a gradual increase in wages, which will stimulate the real disposable income of individuals
Also, the Ministry of Finance estimates that taking loans for consumption will also be encouraged by the improvement of the financial conditions of individuals, after overcoming the negative effect that the impact of supply has caused on inflation and interest rates. While the gradual increase in investments is expected to be driven by a more intensified utilization of existing production capacities, as well as by the acceleration of economic activity during the period, as well as by the improved perception of business on the medium-term economic perspective.
OCTOBER 2022 8.3%
NOVEMBER 2022 7.9%
DECEMBER 2022 7.4%
2026 4 %