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The possible scenario of the war in Ukraine: "Knockout" for Putin, Russia is reconstituted, here is the immediate action by NATO and China
Written by SOT.COM.AL 4 Tetor 2022
Land grabbing, hundreds of thousands of conscripts thrown into the front line, and a nuclear weapon for anyone who dares stand in their way. Vladimir Putin has spent the past week doubling down on his war in Ukraine, but his bluster belies one simple fact: Russia is losing the war and he knows it.
The Russian president is desperate. His army is decimated, his battle plans have failed, he's burning through his cash reserves at an unsustainable rate, and winter is approaching. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian military continues to advance across the country, giving Kiev a steady path to victory.
According to Alp Sevimlisoy, a fellow at the Atlantic Council, who spoke to MailOnline, this would mean the overthrow of Putin, the disintegration of Russia itself and NATO's confrontation with China over what remains.
The West must start preparing for this eventuality now, he adds, otherwise it will open the door for Beijing to push into regions such as Siberia, Central Asia, Africa and South America, where it already has a foothold, but will to see opportunities as Russian power.
"We have to go into a vacuum, look to exert influence, and then we have to deal with the People's Republic of China. China is a globally connected superpower and we must fight them effectively," he said.
In February, when Putin first launched his 'special military operation', such a scenario was hardly imaginable.
Russia was shocked. Her army may not yet be defeated, but a heavy blow has come and her knees are beginning to weaken.
Duke folur menjëherë pasi Ukraina nisi kundërsulmin e saj në Kharkiv, Sevimlisoy tha për MailOnline: “Ukrainasit kanë momentumin, ata po fitojnë. Por ky konflikt nuk do të përfundojë vetëm me largimin e të dyja palëve dhe të thonë ‘kjo është ajo’, por do të jehojë në të gjithë Rusinë dhe rajonin.’
Kjo do të nënkuptonte që fuqia ruse të zbehet jo vetëm nga ato si Amerika e Jugut dhe Afrika, ku më parë ka dërguar mercenarë, ka dhënë hua dhe ka ndërtuar infrastrukturë, por edhe nga shtetet satelitore ish-sovjetike si Kazakistani, Gjeorgjia dhe Armenia, beson ai.
Vetë Rusia mund t’i nënshtrohet luftimeve, me rajone rebele që kërkojnë të shkëputen nga kontrolli i Moskës, ndërsa ndërmjetësit e pushtetit brenda Kremlinit kthehen kundër njëri-tjetrit dhe konkurrojnë për fronin e Putinit.
Although the prospect of a Russia without Putin may have once seemed like a fantasy, Sevimlisoy believes there is almost no way he can survive defeat in Ukraine.
"I can't see a future for Putin if he loses the war," Sevimlisoy said. How do you get back to your people after that? After weaponizing food and energy, how do you get back on the world stage after that?